Characterization of the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis outbreaks in Mexico in 2008.
نویسندگان
چکیده
OBJECTIVE To characterize the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis (VS) outbreaks reported in Mexico in 2008. ANIMALS Bovine herds in Mexico in which VS outbreaks were officially reported and confirmed from January 1 through December 31, 2008. PROCEDURES The Poisson model of the space-time scan statistic was used to identify periods and geographical locations at highest risk for VS in Mexico in 2008. The herd reproductive ratio (R(h)) of the epidemic was computed by use of the doubling-time method. RESULTS 1 significant space-time cluster of VS was detected in the state of Michoacan from September 4 through December 10, 2008. The temporal extent of the VS outbreaks and the value and pattern of decrease of the R(h) were different in the endemic zone of Tabasco and Chiapas, compared with findings in the region included in the space-time cluster. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The large number of VS outbreaks reported in Mexico in 2008 was associated with the spread of the disease from the endemic zone in southern Mexico to areas sporadically affected by the disease. Results suggested that implementation of a surveillance system in the endemic zone of Mexico aimed at early detection of changes in the value of R(h) and space-time clustering of the disease could help predict occurrence of future VS outbreaks originating from this endemic zone. This information will help prevent VS spread into regions of Mexico and neighboring countries that are only sporadically affected by the disease.
منابع مشابه
Molecular epidemiology of vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus from the 2004-2005 US outbreak indicates a common origin with Mexican strains.
Vesicular stomatitis (VS) outbreaks of unknown origin occur at 8-10-year intervals in the south-western USA with the most recent outbreak beginning in 2004. A previous study has suggested that strains causing US outbreaks are closely related to strains causing outbreaks in Mexico [Rodriguez (2002) Virus Res 85, 211-219]. This study determined the phylogenetic relationships among 116 vesicular s...
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ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- American journal of veterinary research
دوره 72 2 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011